SOME SWING STATE/BATTLEGROUND MATH!

I should be outside.
Ok, the 11 "swing states/toss-ups/battlegrounds", per www.270towin.com,(great interactive map, by the way). Are: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.

I am going to consider North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana MCCAIN. I am going to consider Minnesota to be Obama.

That leaves Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. (Before I get arguments; if Obama gets NC, great, icing; and I'm sorry, I can't imagine McCain with Minnesota. SurveyUSA is the ONLY poll that has EVER, EVER, EVER shown McCain as a contender. RCP avg. including the Survey USA McCain +1, shows the last McCain positive poll back in early MARCH. And Intrade has the state 80/22 Obama. Also, re: Missouri/Indiana; while they're remotely possibly, they're both polling +McCain; and Intrade trade doesn't even show trading on those states. So again, icing; but not likely, at this point).

So: the remaining SIX, CO, FL, NV, NH, OH & VA.

1. Colorado; went from +4.4 RCP yesterday to just +3.0 today; and Intrade dropped a fraction as well. 69/31.
2. Florida; Holding steady at +3, but no new polls released yet intrade, 53.5/45
3. Nevada; RCP no new data, still +1.8, but Intrade bumped up 2% overnight, 62/37.
4. New Hampshire; OBAMA, +5.6, no new polls but Intrade is at 74/29.9
5. Ohio; RCP went from +2 to +3 overnight; and intrade held steady, 58/45.
6. VIrginia, +2.4 still, no new polling data, intrade stayed the same, 55/46.

So, giving NC, MO & IN to McCain, MN to Obama;
If Obama ONLY wins Ohio; and McCain gets CO, FL, NV, NH, and VA; it's 280/258 Obama.

If Obama only gets NH & NV, A TIE.

If Obama gets NH, NV and CO; the top three per Intrade, then it's Obama 278/260.

I think it's highly unlikely Obama will lose NH and NV. That leaves Colorado, where he has a slight decline in the polls and on Intrade. But Ohio is very much in play, and I think with Ohio, there was a lot of "down to earth" issue; that Obama was not connecting with, and coming across as elitist. I think the Ohio Democrats and Independents held out for a long, long time, but if they've made the switch; I don't necessarily see them turning back. Now the flow of nasty attack ads that will be barraging the airwaves in these states will be mind boggling; but Obama has a tremendous amount more money. But there are only 4 more weeks; and every little bit counts. It's going to take Obama SEVERAL ads to deal with a single McCain/527 ad; particularly ones that target race, terrorism, and taxes.