Wow.

Right now, Obama is solid blue in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia. (Iowa, per fivethirtyeight.com, is 100% Obama 0% chance for McCain).

If McCain wins ALL of these: FLORIDA, OHIO, INDIANA, PENNSYLVANIA, MISSOURI and NORTH CAROLINA; it's 270 Obama to 268 McCain. www.270towin.com has Obama at 277 now, giving him Pennsylvania, not even calling that a swing state. So to flip that to McCain, and give him FL, OH, IN, MO and NC still isn't enough, he'd need Nevada also. Wow.

Quote Of The Day

From FiveThirtyEight.com, re: Nebraska (i.e., there are 538 electoral votes).

..."the Eastern portion of the state, is also theoretically winnable for Obama. He'll get crushed, meanwhile, in Western Nebraska. If John McCain has a nervous breakdown and replaces himself on the ticket with Jack Abramoff, Obama might win 537 electoral votes -- with Western Nebraska being the holdout."

Karl Rove's Electoral College Map

If McCain wins ALL of the 102 "toss up" states on Rove's map, Barack Obama still wins. (Rove shows Obama at 274 now, McCain 163, and "toss up"s 102.

Update: 10/6/08 1:30pm CST:

McCain's Epitaph?

From the NY Daily News ...

McCain's course correction reflects a growing case of nerves within his high command as the electoral map has shifted significantly in Obama's favor in the past two weeks.

"It's a dangerous road, but we have no choice," a top McCain strategist told the Daily News. "If we keep talking about the economic crisis, we're going to lose."

--Josh Marshall