SOME SWING STATE/BATTLEGROUND MATH!

I should be outside.
Ok, the 11 "swing states/toss-ups/battlegrounds", per www.270towin.com,(great interactive map, by the way). Are: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.

I am going to consider North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana MCCAIN. I am going to consider Minnesota to be Obama.

That leaves Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. (Before I get arguments; if Obama gets NC, great, icing; and I'm sorry, I can't imagine McCain with Minnesota. SurveyUSA is the ONLY poll that has EVER, EVER, EVER shown McCain as a contender. RCP avg. including the Survey USA McCain +1, shows the last McCain positive poll back in early MARCH. And Intrade has the state 80/22 Obama. Also, re: Missouri/Indiana; while they're remotely possibly, they're both polling +McCain; and Intrade trade doesn't even show trading on those states. So again, icing; but not likely, at this point).

So: the remaining SIX, CO, FL, NV, NH, OH & VA.

1. Colorado; went from +4.4 RCP yesterday to just +3.0 today; and Intrade dropped a fraction as well. 69/31.
2. Florida; Holding steady at +3, but no new polls released yet intrade, 53.5/45
3. Nevada; RCP no new data, still +1.8, but Intrade bumped up 2% overnight, 62/37.
4. New Hampshire; OBAMA, +5.6, no new polls but Intrade is at 74/29.9
5. Ohio; RCP went from +2 to +3 overnight; and intrade held steady, 58/45.
6. VIrginia, +2.4 still, no new polling data, intrade stayed the same, 55/46.

So, giving NC, MO & IN to McCain, MN to Obama;
If Obama ONLY wins Ohio; and McCain gets CO, FL, NV, NH, and VA; it's 280/258 Obama.

If Obama only gets NH & NV, A TIE.

If Obama gets NH, NV and CO; the top three per Intrade, then it's Obama 278/260.

I think it's highly unlikely Obama will lose NH and NV. That leaves Colorado, where he has a slight decline in the polls and on Intrade. But Ohio is very much in play, and I think with Ohio, there was a lot of "down to earth" issue; that Obama was not connecting with, and coming across as elitist. I think the Ohio Democrats and Independents held out for a long, long time, but if they've made the switch; I don't necessarily see them turning back. Now the flow of nasty attack ads that will be barraging the airwaves in these states will be mind boggling; but Obama has a tremendous amount more money. But there are only 4 more weeks; and every little bit counts. It's going to take Obama SEVERAL ads to deal with a single McCain/527 ad; particularly ones that target race, terrorism, and taxes.

SWING

"It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

No one has been elected President since 1960 without winning two of the three swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. See link for full article, very interesting.